2020: Incertezas das eleições
Embora o Senado Federal tenha aprovado Proposta de Emenda Constitucional (PEC) adiando as eleições municipais para os dias 15 e 29 de novembro, não há garantia de que a Câmara dos Deputados siga pelo mesmo caminho. Há várias discussões que, tomadas em conjunto, criam um ambiente de incerteza que tende a polemizar o debate entre os deputados.
Antes de abordar os dilemas, é importante lembrar que as eleições municipais são decisivas para os deputados federais. Além de vários parlamentares se apresentarem como candidatos, os prefeitos eleitos em um ano fazem papel de cabos eleitorais nas eleições para a Câmara Federal no ano seguinte.
A dúvida principal é como estará a sociedade em novembro. Em tese, o dinheiro da ajuda federal já terá se esgotado e não se sabe se as prefeituras estarão com os pagamentos de funcionários e de fornecedores em dia, algo que faz grande diferença do ponto de vista eleitoral, especialmente em cidades menores.
Se o auxílio emergencial para as pessoas ainda estará ou não sendo pago é outra variável importante, pois afeta a sensação de bem-estar das pessoas. Se elas estiverem confortáveis (na medida do possível), o cenário é melhor para os situacionistas. Se a população estiver agressiva e insegura, faturam os oposicionistas.
Nesse sentido, deputados federais fazem as contas. Como o PT foi o grande perdedor das eleições municipais de 2016, a maior parte dos gabinetes está nas mãos dos partidos do Centrão que, hoje, indicam preferir que as eleições sejam feitas em ambiente de maior segurança, ou seja, na data original, em outubro, quando o efeito dos auxílios ainda estarão se fazendo sentir.
Outras incertezas apontadas são: (i) o adiamento da eleição deixa dúvidas quanto à extensão do período de campanha. Quanto maior ele é, mais cara a campanha fica; (ii) a proposta de ampliação do horário de votação, o aumento do número de seções eleitorais e da quantidade de urnas para evitar aglomerações afetaria o orçamento do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) para a realização do pleito; (iii) o período de apenas um mês entre o resultado e a posse (janeiro), talvez impeça que as contas dos candidatos já tenham sido julgadas pela Justiça, tornando difícil a diplomação dos vencedores.
Todas as questões levantadas estão sendo debatidas intensamente pelos parlamentares. É possível que, diante de incertezas demais, o tomador de decisão se oriente também pelo critério da segurança eleitoral e Câmara não consiga chegar a um consenso. Se for este o caso, a data das eleições permanecerá como originalmente prevista. Essa é uma possibilidade real hoje.
*Leonardo Barreto. Doutor em Ciência Política pela Universidade de Brasília (UnB) com especialização em comportamento eleitoral e instituições governamentais. Foi professor substituto da UnB e já coordenou mais de 50 estudos com parlamentares, jornalistas e autoridades do Executivo, nos planos federal, municipal e estadual. Ao longo de sua atuação profissional, acumulou profundo conhecimento empírico e científico sobre a lógica da ação política. Escreve no Capital Político.
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